Search results for " autoregressive models"

A framework for assessing frequency domain causality in physiological time series with instantaneous effects.

2013

We present an approach for the quantification of directional relations in multiple time series exhibiting significant zero-lag interactions. To overcome the limitations of the traditional multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) modelling of multiple series, we introduce an extended MVAR (eMVAR) framework allowing either exclusive consideration of time-lagged effects according to the classic notion of Granger causality, or consideration of combined instantaneous and lagged effects according to an extended causality definition. The spectral representation of the eMVAR model is exploited to derive novel frequency domain causality measures that generalize to the case of instantaneous effects the kno…

Stochastic analysis of motorcycle dynamics

2011

Off-road and racing motorcycles require a particular setup of the suspensions to improve the comfort and the safety of the rider, maintaining a continuous contact between the road and the motorcycle (by means of the tires). Further, because of the ground roughness, in the case of offroad motorcycle, suspensions usually experience extreme and erratic excursions (suspension stroke) in performing their function. In this regard, the adoption of nonlinear devices can, perhaps, limit both the acceleration experienced by the sprung mass and the excursions of the suspensions. This leads to the consideration of asymmetric nonlinearly-behaving suspensions. This option, however, induces the difficulty…

On the interpretability and computational reliability of frequency-domain Granger causality

2017

This Correspondence article is a comment which directly relates to the paper “A study of problems encountered in Granger causality analysis from a neuroscience perspective” (Stokes and Purdon, 2017). We agree that interpretation issues of Granger causality (GC) in neuroscience exist, partially due to the historically unfortunate use of the name “causality”, as described in previous literature. On the other hand, we think that Stokes and Purdon use a formulation of GC which is outdated (albeit still used) and do not fully account for the potential of the different frequency-domain versions of GC; in doing so, their paper dismisses GC measures based on a suboptimal use of them. Furthermore, s…

Multivariate autoregressive model with instantaneous effects to improve brain connectivity estimation

2009

Comparative Economic Cycles

2008

The income cycles that have been experienced by six OECD countries over the past 24 years are analysed. The amplitude of the cycles relative to the level of aggregate income varies amongst the countries, as does the degree of the damping that affects the cycles. The study aims to reveal both of these characteristics. It also seeks to determine whether there exists a clear relationship between the degree of damping and the length of the cycles. In order to estimate the parameters of the cycles, the data have been subjected to the processes of detrending, anti-alias filtering and subsampling.

Multiscale Information Decomposition: Exact Computation for Multivariate Gaussian Processes

2017

Exploiting the theory of state space models, we derive the exact expressions of the information transfer, as well as redundant and synergistic transfer, for coupled Gaussian processes observed at multiple temporal scales. All of the terms, constituting the frameworks known as interaction information decomposition and partial information decomposition, can thus be analytically obtained for different time scales from the parameters of the VAR model that fits the processes. We report the application of the proposed methodology firstly to benchmark Gaussian systems, showing that this class of systems may generate patterns of information decomposition characterized by prevalently redundant or sy…

No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35

2013

This paper analyzes the behavior of Ibex35 from January 1999 to December 2001, in order to check if it follows a different process from random walk so its return is not a white noise and it can be predictable, against the efficient market hypothesis. For that, a nonlinear generating process of return will be considered and a STAR-APARCH model will be specified. This model allows a nonlinear behavior in the conditional mean and in the conditional variance. The empirical results show that the Ibex35 follows a nonlinear and asymmetric process, both in the conditional mean as in the conditional variance, so the weak-version of efficient market hypothesis is rejected. El trabajo analiza el compo…